環境：威脅與風險The environment: threats and risks

Russia as a threat to European security

Since February 2022, Russia has been waging a full-scale war in Ukraine in violation of international law. Attempts to contain the conflict through diplomatic channels have been unsuccessful so far. Russia is also holding on to its claim to a sphere of influence. It is putting its economy on a war footing and gearing its armed forces toward a possible confrontation with Western states. If Western support for Ukraine were to decrease, Russia could prevail in Ukraine.

There is a risk of an escalation to a war between Russia and NATO member states. For years, Russia has been using disinformation, cyberattacks, espionage and sabotage to unsettle and destabilise Western countries. Russia is experienced in war, is arming itself and making military preparations on the border with NATO. It is using airspace violations to probe NATO’s political and military readiness to react. Doubts as to whether and to what extent European NATO members, the United States and Canada would fulfil their duty to provide assistance could tempt Russia to destabilise or directly attack other states in its neighbourhood.

Both Western and Asian states are drawing lessons from the war in Ukraine: NATO member states for the event of a direct military confrontation with Russia; the United States and Asian states for a possible armed conflict over Taiwan or in the South China Sea. They assess the effectiveness of weapons systems, the reliability of alliances and the shifting of territorial borders.

China’s growing influence

China is asserting itself more strongly as a global actor and pursues clear political, economic and territorial goals. It is expanding its military capabilities, including its nuclear arsenal, and strengthening its regional and global influence. It uses political, economic and military means to do so. On several continents, China has gained access to markets, sources of raw materials and facilities that can be used for military purposes. China can use dependencies of other countries, for example regarding rare earths, as leverage. With partnerships and intelligence tools, it is gaining access to technologies that it can also use militarily.

China is supporting its territorial claims in the South and East China Seas by military means. This could lead to an escalation. The Chinese leadership does not rule out bringing Taiwan back under control by military means if necessary. Such a war would have major global implications. However, due to China’s economic dependencies and the risks that armed action could expand or fail, the political leadership is unlikely to seek military escalation for the time being.

The United States orientation to the Pacific

Apart from the war in Ukraine, the rivalry between the United States and China is the most important development in security policy. Both countries perceive economic and military strength as the best means to achieve their goals and are striving for a technological edge. It remains to be seen to what extent this rivalry will develop into two isolated economic, political and technological spheres.

The United States remains the leader in military and economic power. Its system of alliances is far-reaching; however, the extent to which the United States is still committed to it is less clear than in the past. The United States is less willing to assume its traditional role as guarantor of the world order. It is increasingly pursuing a foreign and security policy guided by narrow national interests. This is worrying for Europe’s security – and thus also for Switzerland’s security.

Crisis of the current multilateral system

In the course of the new power politics, the interests of individual states and changeable, more informal coalitions are shaping international relations more strongly once again. As a result, the world becomes more fragmented and unstable. Because major powers are increasingly disregarding international law, established international institutions are losing their enforcement ability. The mechanisms for peaceful resolution of disputes are hardly effective anymore, as the violent conflicts and the lasting change in the order in the Middle East showcase.

At the same time, China, Russia, North Korea and Iran are increasingly interconnecting politically, economically and militarily. This has been accelerated by the war against Ukraine. Russia and China have expanded their exchange in military technology, possibly in the future regarding hypersonic weapons, space capabilities or submarine technology, too. Trade with China is crucial for Russia to continue its war. Conflicts in Europe and Asia are thus increasingly intertwined.

Regional powers such as Brazil, India, Saudi Arabia and Turkey are expanding their ambitions for power. Some of these countries are deepening their relations and trade with China but continue to count on cooperation with the United States. Countries of the “Global South” are becoming more assertive in co-shaping international institutions and norms. The expanded BRICS group of states is a competing format to the Western G7.

Space is also increasingly becoming a theatre of power politics and possible disruptions. Sabotage operations and growing military potentials in space entail the risk of collateral damage, including for Europe and Switzerland.

Finally, most nuclear powers are upgrading their nuclear arsenals qualitatively and quantitatively, and Russia has repeatedly threatened to use nuclear weapons. The incentive for nuclear proliferation is increasing. Today, the risk of nuclear escalation is more acute than it has been for decades. The use of nuclear weapons or other weapons of mass destruction would have catastrophic consequences for the world.

Instrumentalization of economic dependencies

The last few years have shown that global interconnectedness and the international division of labour not only create prosperity but also entail risks. Crises can disturb or even interrupt the supply of important goods and services worldwide. Dependence is particularly high for advanced semiconductors, rare earths and software, for example, which are indispensable or difficult to replace. But there are also still major dependencies on medical and technical goods; think of the hygiene masks during the Covid-19 pandemic or medicines and solar panels, whose production in Europe is complex and expensive.

Great powers use such dependencies as leverage for their political, economic, technological and military goals. They are increasingly using unilateral export controls, sanctions, tariffs or subsidies to exclude rivals from important goods and technologies, to restrict trade or to strengthen their own innovation and production. In view of the tensions between the major powers, many states are taking countermeasures to reduce their vulnerabilities. They have increased regulations in the areas of research and immigration to prevent the unwanted outflow of critical know-how – for example, on dual-use technologies that can be used for both civilian and military purposes. They examine investments regarding their impact on public order or security. To reduce their own strategic dependencies, they are reviewing existing supply chains. Some countries are reshaping these with industrial policy subsidies or trade restrictions. Other, especially open economies, are trying to strengthen international cooperation and expand their market access to make supply chains more resilient to crises and to diversify dependencies.

Hybrid conduct of conflict

Hybrid conduct of conflict describes a combination of different means that a state aggressor uses to destabilise another state, undermine its institutions, or impose its will on it.

Hybrid conduct of conflict encompasses the entire spectrum of exertion of pressure, including up to the threat and use of military force. Its means include cyberattacks, influence activities (such as disinformation), espionage, sabotage, economic pressure and blackmail, the instrumentalisation of migration movements and criminal groups, and covert military operations. They combine various means of influence: military and non-military, overt and covert, direct and indirect. Additionally, states often employ non-state actors to achieve their goals.

In most cases, hybrid attacks are carried out covertly for as long as possible, so that the perpetrator of individual actions cannot be determined beyond doubt. Open hybrid attacks take place at a low escalatory level and thus deliberately in a grey area between peace and war under international law. It is becoming increasingly difficult to determine when one can speak of an armed attack.¹¹ This ambiguity makes it difficult for the attacked state to recognise the threshold of a destabilisation that threatens its existence and to respond to this threat in an appropriate and timely manner.

Figure 3: Schematic representation of a possible escalation of hybrid conduct of conflict.

Influence activities usually pursue the goal of portraying other states and their institutions as negative and dysfunctional, polarising and radicalising societies and thus endangering their resilience and stability. With repression, usually non-democratic or authoritarian states try to intimidate and oppress people and groups beyond national borders. Social media and artificial intelligence facilitate such influence activities.

Cyberattacks target society’s dependence on critical infrastructures such as power supply, transport, mobile communications, satellite-based navigation, and data and financial flows, and are used for sabotage. If failures and disruptions of individual infrastructures impact further infrastructures, they can also cause supply bottlenecks and shortages – with an impact on the ability of authorities and emergency services to act and manage the consequences. Conversely, interruptions in individual systems and connections can often be compensated for or restored more quickly thanks to increasing interconnections.

Hybrid conduct of conflict in Europe is not new, but it has increased quantitatively and qualitatively, in the breadth of the instruments used and their coordination. Especially autocratic states are increasingly using such means to assert their interests and weaken European states. The coordinated use of these means and the constant pressure also challenge resilient systems and consolidated democracies. Espionage, cyberattacks, and influence activities are also used against Switzerland.

New technologies

In Ukraine in particular, a broad spectrum of warfare is evident. Like previous wars, this one is also a catalyst for the military application of new technologies, their integration into existing weapons systems and their constant adaptation: Both sides are constantly adapting to changing tactics and new weapons systems of the adversary. This leads to an acceleration of the battle, the increasing use of unmanned systems and a “transparent” battlefield: Thanks to modern sensors, drones and data networking, every actor is almost completely visible and subject to reconnaissance.

Technology development, especially in AI, biotechnology, quantum technology and quantum sensing¹², will continue to change not only societies, but also threats and wars. AI is becoming a key technology of modern armed forces and will from now on influence many military capabilities. It can evaluate large amounts of data and create complex content from text, sound or images. This will make it even easier to create and spread disinformation in a targeted manner. AI can help identify vulnerabilities and exploit them for effective, automated cyberattacks. It also makes existing weapon systems more powerful and, in combination with robotics, creates qualitatively new, increasingly autonomous weapons systems.

The effects of quantum technology and biotechnology for security policy are not yet sufficiently foreseeable. In the near future, powerful quantum computers are likely to break various current encryption systems and thus pose serious risks to information security.

In this technological competition, states are increasingly seeking cooperation with large technology companies, as these have crucial know-how, infrastructure and data. Their influence on a state’s economic and military strength and on warfare is thus increasing. Most of the leading technology companies are based in the United States or China.

These developments endanger strategic stability, also because the application of international legal norms regarding the use of these technologies, such as in the cyber domain or space, has partly not been clarified or because governments prevent the establishment of such norms.

Polarisation and division

Social cohesion and solidarity are essential components of resilience. Influence activities and disinformation as part of hybrid conduct of conflict directly aim at social division by spreading false and distorted information, thus fuelling opposing and extreme opinions on controversial issues. In Europe, this particularly strengthens the parties on the political fringes and can influence election and voting results in democracies. Political polarisation endangers consensus-building, social cohesion and thus also political stability – even to the point of provoking hatred and violence in public and private life. Fears of decline or the feeling of being excluded can increase susceptibility to extremism and radicalisation. Following the international trend towards violence-based conflict resolution, there is therefore a danger that violence will also increase domestically in everyday life.

Terrorism und extremism

Jihadist-motivated terrorism in particular has been a serious threat for years, despite successes in containing larger groups such as the so-called Islamic State and Al-Qaeda. The violent conflicts in the Middle East and jihadist online propaganda increasingly radicalise potential lone perpetrators, who pose the greatest threat and are increasingly under-age. Terrorist groups still have the ambition of carrying out large-scale attacks; however, acts of violence with simple means are more likely. The terrorist threat in Europe is likely to intensify periodically in the coming years. Ethno-nationalist terrorism also remains relevant in this respect.

Switzerland has so far been less affected by terrorist attacks than other European countries. However, the threat posed by individuals who have been radicalised by terrorism or extremism also persists for Switzerland, especially for minorities.

Finally, there are more “state objectors”, i.e. people who neither respect nor recognise state authorities and who fundamentally reject the legitimacy of the democratic state under the rule of law. Their ideology is not openly violent, but they justify violence as a means of alleged self-defence.

Crime

Organised crime endangers internal security, the legal economy and the rule of law, as the clan and gang crime in various European cities already shows. Violent gangs often operate across borders, recruiting their members from marginalised neighbourhoods and migrant groups. Increasingly often, they also resort to minors.

Organised crime is on the rise in Europe. It has significantly expanded drug trafficking as a core business in the last ten years. A network of underground banking systems and cryptocurrencies play an important role in this regard. Civil wars, conflicts, economic crises and political repression exacerbate human smuggling and trafficking, which in turn benefits organised crime. Human trafficking for the exploitation of labour takes place in many sectors of the economy.

To influence society and authorities, organised crime uses infiltration, bribery and violence or the threat of it. These methods have so far been rather rare in Switzerland, but they do exist. Abroad, there is increased cooperation between various criminal organisations or even with terrorist actors. Against the backdrop of geopolitical tensions in Europe, there is also a risk that organised crime will be politically instrumentalised. Authoritarian states use them, for example, to commit acts of sabotage, conceal espionage or circumvent sanctions.

Activities of organised crime are also increasing significantly in Switzerland. International criminal networks use Switzerland as a place of operation and retreat. They trade in people, drugs and weapons and engage in money laundering and cybercrime.

After the number of crimes in Europe had decreased since 2012, it has been increasing again since 2022, especially property and sexual crimes as well as serious violent crimes. Cybercrime has been on the rise for years. Cybercriminals often target the lucrative financial sector and companies with poorly protected IT infrastructure, but also public authorities. Three-quarters of the reported cases of fraud now take place via the Internet. Here, too, artificial intelligence and deepfakes are increasingly being used.

Climate change

Climate change is exacerbating and accelerating existing political, social, environmental and economic problems. Extreme weather events such as floods, droughts, heat waves, forest fires or landslides are occurring more frequently and more intensively worldwide, with negative effects on the population and infrastructure. In Switzerland, temperatures are even rising twice as fast as the global average. In regions such as the Sahel, climate change is increasing poverty and migratory pressure. In densely populated areas of the world, critical infrastructures and thus the security of supply of energy, water, food and medical services are affected by climate change. The higher the infrastructure density, the greater the potential damage, given failures and disruptions can quickly lead to a chain reaction. Energy production and shipping can also be affected.

Health

The Covid-19 pandemic highlighted the far-reaching global consequences of new pathogens. The risk of renewed pandemics remains. Climate change, the globalised movement of people, goods and animals and the destruction of wildlife habitats facilitate new infectious diseases, animal diseases, the transmission of diseases between humans and animals and antibiotic resistance. Bioterrorism, laboratory accidents or chemical and radiological hazards can also trigger health crises. Such events, attacks or disasters can quickly lead to health systems being overwhelmed.

Migration

In recent years, there has been an increase in the number of people worldwide who are displaced due to armed conflicts, difficult political and economic conditions or climate-related factors. Migration movements can also have implications for security policy. They are sometimes instrumentalised as a means of exerting pressure and as part of hybrid conduct of conflict. Terrorist or violent extremist actors or radicalised individuals can succeed in reaching Europe undetected as part of refugee and migration movements. Human trafficking and smuggling are mostly organised by criminal networks. In the area of asylum, low-threshold property crimes, often committed by repeat offenders from certain countries, impair the population’s sense of security and weaken confidence in the asylum system.